The 49ers’ resounding victory over the unfortunate Chicago Bears on Sunday gave them a chance to look like Super Bowl contenders for the first time. However, the Niners’ odds of making the playoffs worsened despite the win.
For San Francisco, especially in the NFC West, it was a difficult weekend for their hopes of qualifying for the NFC playoffs. Despite improving to 6-7, the Niners’ odds of winning the division were reduced by one percentage point from the previous week to 4% according to the Athletic’s playoff model. They still had a 6% chance of making the playoffs overall.
Using various statistical models or projections doesn’t seem to improve the situation significantly. San Francisco has an 8% probability of making the playoffs, according to NFL.com’s NextGenStats model. The Niners have a 2% chance of winning the division and a 4% chance of making the playoffs, according to the Washington Post’s most pessimistic prediction.
The Niners’ three blown leads in their divisional matchups and the prolonged consequences from them are the primary causes of the lower odds, despite their victory.
The division-leading Seattle Seahawks improved to 8-5 on Sunday by defeating the Arizona Cardinals 30-18 in the Valley of the Sun. That earned Seattle their third division victory of the season and kept San Francisco two games behind them.
If Seattle defeats the Rams on the road in Week 18 and records one additional victory (hosting the Packers and Vikings before traveling to play the Bears), the Niners will not be able to win the division, even if the 49ers finish 10-7, which would put their division record at 3-3. A victory over the Rams would give Seattle four NFC West victories, and since the teams have split their two games this season, division record will be the next tiebreaker.
In the meantime, the Rams advanced to 7-6 by defeating the Buffalo Bills 44-42 in a shootout in Inglewood. The Rams will end their schedule by playing the Jets away from home before hosting the Cardinals and Seahawks, but the 49ers can even the score in their Thursday night matchup. The Rams, who are now 2-1 in the division, could sweep their next three games and defeat the 49ers for a division title even if they lose; the final two victories would give them four NFC West victories.
Given that the Washington Commanders are 8-5, the 49ers still have a chance to earn a wild card berth. However, the 49ers will need to lose two of their next four games (at the Saints, hosting the Eagles and Falcons, and then at the Cowboys) in order to even have a chance of catching up to Washington. Although it seems unlikely, it is undoubtedly conceivable.
Regardless of your point of view, the 49ers will not be in charge of their own fate and will want assistance from some of their NFC opponents in order to maintain their prospects of making the playoffs.