Today’s baseball fans frequently ponder the following: How much more history is Shohei Ohtani capable of creating on his own? The two-way star’s career is full of unprecedented feats that are unlikely to be matched in the near future. As a result, there is already a strong case to be made that he is the most talented player in the history of Major League Baseball because no one else has performed as well as he has for this long and against competition of this caliber. So, realistically, what single-season accomplishment does Ohtani still have to accomplish?
Ohtani has given a response through the main portion of the time by situating himself as a genuine danger to break Aaron Judge’s year-old single-season American Association homer record of 62. Indeed, Ohtani was moving faster than Judge throughout Tuesday’s game, which he pitched but missed due to a blister. While Judge had homered multiple times in the Yankees’ initial 88 group games, Ohtani homered 31 groups in the Heavenly messengers’ initial 88 group games. In the following contest, Judge would hit his 31st home run.
As can be seen, Ohtani was a long way off from hitting his 25th home run. His noteworthy June has since permitted him to get up to speed and try and outperform Judge’s speed. It’s become sensible to inquire: Is Ohtani really capable of surpassing Judge? At CBS Sports, we made the decision to use a spreadsheet to find out.
If you are familiar with projection systems, you are aware that it is frequently a fool’s errand to divide a player’s current performance among as many games as possible. That disregards the idea of regression to the mean, without getting too geeky. By comparing a player’s performance to that of the league as well as their previous performances, the best projection systems attempt to determine a player’s “true talent level.” The thought is, basically, that outrageous exhibitions will generally address eventually.
We are going to provide two roadmaps and, at the very least, leave out the regression section in order to keep things accessible. One depends on Ohtani’s ongoing grand slam rate – – which is, as you might have speculated, raised versus his standard. The other is based on his season-to-season averages throughout his career. This method shows how difficult it is to hit 62 home runs and is also easier for laypeople to understand. To wit:
You might be curious about how Ohtani managed to play 88 team games ahead of Judge’s schedule without anticipating breaking the record. One major factor is at play: From that point on, Judge worked on his best home runs. In other words, in his first 376 plate appearances, Judge homered 31 times. Over the next 320 plate appearances, Judge hit 31 home runs.
Judge homered in 8.9% of his seasonal plate appearances due to that second-half barrage. To date, Ohtani has hit a home run in 8.1% of his plate appearances. Even though the gap between those rates and Ohtani’s projected total and Judge’s record is roughly the same, it adds up to about five or six additional home runs over the course of 650 plate appearances.
Is it possible that Ohtani is about to perform his best slugging? Yes. Based on his career norms and other factors, it is simply not possible. Low-likelihood situations unfurl constantly, in actuality, and in baseball. For example, Judge was extremely unlikely to break the record until he actually did it. Even so, Ohtani is almost certainly not going to succeed. Roger Maris’ record lasted for 61 years for a reason: It is difficult to homer in about 9% of your annual plate appearances.
Participating in nearly every game of your team’s season is also difficult. Due to his workload as a pitcher, Ohtani will face an even greater obstacle in that regard than Judge or anyone else in recent memory. Even though a blister and a cracked fingernail were the only issues that kept him from making his last two starts, his absences serve as a reminder of how hard his job is. He has made it appear to be simple, but it is difficult to expect a single player to pitch and hit at an elite level year after year.
Will Ohtani break Judge’s record? Based on the available data and historical precedent, we would guess not. However, the fact that Ohtani is baseball’s ultimate outlier is one thing that can be written about to summarize the Ohtani experience.