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New Era of Space Storm Warnings Could Protect Earth’s Technological Infrastructure

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Our understanding of the precise moment when a strong solar eruption may strike Earth has advanced to the point where space storms may soon be foretold with ever-greater accuracy.

Even before a coronal mass ejection (CME) has completely erupted from the sun, scientists claim that they are now able to forecast the exact speed at which a CME is traveling and the exact moment at which it will destroy our planet.

CMEs are outbursts from the solar atmosphere that consist of gas and magnetic fields.

Space weather forecasts are being improved by specialists worldwide because they can trigger geomagnetic storms that could cause major disruptions to terrestrial technology both on Earth’s surface and in its orbit.

Researchers from Aberystwyth University, who will present their findings today at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting (NAM 2024) in Hull, believe that advancements like this one could make a significant difference in helping to protect infrastructure that is essential to our daily lives.

After examining particular solar regions known as “active regions,” which have powerful magnetic fields and are the birthplace of CMEs, scientists discovered their discovery. The areas’ changes prior to, during, and following an eruption were observed by the researchers.

The “critical height” of the active regions—the altitude at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and potentially triggers a CME—was a crucial factor they examined.

Lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University, said, “We can determine this critical height by measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height.”

“This data can then be used along with a geometric model, which is used to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions rather than just two, which is essential for precise predictions.”

“Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed.” she continued.

“This insight allows us to predict the CME’s speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted.”

These CMEs have the ability to cause a geomagnetic storm that can result in breathtaking aurorae, often known as the Northern Lights in the northern hemisphere, when they strike the Earth.

However, the storms also pose a threat to critical infrastructure that we depend on on a daily basis, such as communication networks, power grids, and satellites. For this reason, scientists from all over the world are putting a lot of effort into enhancing our capacity to forecast the exact time when CMEs will strike Earth.

In order to more accurately predict when the CME will strike our planet, it is necessary to know its speed quickly after it bursts from the solar.

Precise velocity forecasts allow for a more accurate estimation of the arrival time of a CME on Earth, hence offering vital early warnings.

“Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on,” Gandhi stated.

“Our research not only enhances our understanding of the sun’s explosive behavior but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events.”

“This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day.”

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Researchers Achieve Breakthrough in Quantum Simulation of Electron Transfer

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A team at Rice University has achieved a significant breakthrough in simulating molecular electron transfer using a trapped-ion quantum simulator. Their research offers fresh insights into the dynamics of electron transfer and could pave the way for innovations in molecular electronics, renewable energy, and cc.

Electron transfer is a critical process underpinning numerous physical, chemical, and biological phenomena. However, the complexity of quantum interactions has long made it a challenging area to study. Conventional computational techniques often struggle to capture the full range of variables influencing electron transfer.

To address these challenges, the researchers developed a programmable quantum system capable of independently controlling key factors such as donor-acceptor energy gaps, electronic and vibronic couplings, and environmental dissipation. Using ions trapped in an ultra-high vacuum and manipulated by laser light, the team demonstrated real-time spin dynamics and measured electron transfer rates.

“This is the first time that this kind of model has been simulated on a physical device while incorporating the role of the environment and tailoring it in a controlled way,” said Guido Pagano, lead author of the study published in Science Advances.

Pagano added, “It represents a significant leap forward in our ability to use quantum simulators to investigate models and regimes relevant to chemistry and biology. By harnessing the power of quantum simulation, we hope to explore scenarios currently inaccessible to classical computational methods.”

Through precise engineering of tunable dissipation and programmable quantum systems, the researchers explored both adiabatic and nonadiabatic regimes of electron transfer. The experiment not only illuminated how quantum effects function under diverse conditions but also identified optimal parameters for electron transfer.

The team emphasized that their findings bridge a critical gap between theoretical predictions and experimental verification. By offering a tunable framework to investigate quantum processes in complex systems, their work could lead to groundbreaking advancements in renewable energy technologies, molecular electronics, and the development of novel materials.

“This experiment is a promising first step toward understanding how quantum effects influence energy transport, particularly in biological systems like photosynthetic complexes,” said Jose N. Onuchic, study co-author. “The insights gained could inspire the design of more efficient light-harvesting materials.”

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Crew Dragon Mission Delay Extends Astronauts’ Stay on ISS by a Month

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The next mission of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon to the International Space Station (ISS) has been postponed by a month due to delays in completing a new spacecraft. This decision will extend the stay of some astronauts aboard the ISS, including two who have been there since June.

NASA announced on December 17 that the Crew-10 mission, initially scheduled for February, is now set to launch no earlier than late March. The delay stems from the need for additional time to finish the fabrication, assembly, testing, and integration of a new Crew Dragon capsule.

Crafting the New Dragon Capsule

“Fabrication, assembly, testing, and final integration of a new spacecraft is a painstaking endeavor that requires great attention to detail,” said Steve Stich, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Manager. He commended SpaceX’s efforts to expand the Dragon fleet and the flexibility of the ISS crew in accommodating the delay.

The new Crew Dragon will be the fifth in SpaceX’s lineup of crewed spacecraft, complementing its three cargo Dragon vehicles. According to Sarah Walker, SpaceX’s Dragon Mission Management Director, the spacecraft was near completion as of July and was undergoing final work at SpaceX’s California facility. It is now expected to arrive in Florida for final preparations in January.

While NASA did not specify the exact reasons for the delay, it considered other options, including using an existing Crew Dragon or making adjustments to the launch manifest, before opting for the delay. Existing capsules, including Freedom, currently at the ISS, and Endeavour and Resilience, which recently returned from other missions, were not available for a February launch.

Crew Adjustments and Extended ISS Stay

The Crew-10 mission will proceed with its planned roster: Anne McClain and Nichole Ayers from NASA, Takuya Onishi from JAXA, and Kirill Peskov from Roscosmos.

The delay has implications for the Crew-9 mission, launched in late September with NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov. They were joined by NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, who have been on the station since June after arriving on Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner.

Originally, Williams and Wilmore were scheduled to stay for just over a week, but their time on the ISS will now extend to about 10 months. NASA had earlier decided to return the uncrewed Starliner to Earth due to concerns with its thrusters.

Despite the delay, NASA emphasizes that Williams and Wilmore are not “stranded” as they can return to Earth in an emergency. Their extended stay is tied to the decision to use the new Crew Dragon for the upcoming mission, as preparing another vehicle was deemed impractical.

Looking Ahead

Assuming the Crew-10 launch proceeds in late March, the Crew-9 spacecraft is expected to return to Earth in early April after a handover period. This delay underscores the complexity of preparing new spacecraft while ensuring the safety and readiness of all missions.

As the new Crew Dragon nears completion, SpaceX and NASA remain focused on maintaining seamless operations aboard the ISS and advancing human space exploration.

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Boeing Starliner crews will have an extended stay on the ISS due to SpaceX’s delay

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NASA said on Tuesday that it has decided to postpone the launch until at least late March because SpaceX’s upcoming crew rotation mission to the ISS would utilize a new Dragon spacecraft that won’t be ready by the initial February launch date.

For the two NASA astronauts who traveled to the ISS last June on Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft, that means an even longer stay. On June 5, they took off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V on the first crewed mission of Starliner. They arrived at the ISS one day later for a stay that was only expected to last eight days.

NASA decided to be cautious and maintain Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard the ISS while sending Starliner home without a crew due to issues with the spacecraft’s thrusters and helium leaks on its propulsion module.

In order for Williams and Wilmore to have a trip home, they will now be traveling on the SpaceX Crew Dragon Freedom, which traveled up to the ISS and docked in September, although with only two crew members on board rather than the customary four.

When Crew-10 arrived in late February, the mission’s goal was to take a trip home.

However, NASA confirmed that Crew-10 will not fly with its replacement crew until late March. This allows NASA and SpaceX time to prepare the new Dragon spacecraft, which has not yet been given a name, for the voyage. Early January is when it is anticipated to reach Florida.

“Fabrication, assembly, testing, and final integration of a new spacecraft is a painstaking endeavor that requires great attention to detail,” stated Steve Stich, the program manager for NASA’s Commercial Crew. “We appreciate the hard work by the SpaceX team to expand the Dragon fleet in support of our missions and the flexibility of the station program and expedition crews as we work together to complete the new capsule’s readiness for flight.”

It would be the fifth Dragon spacecraft with a crew. Its fleet of four current Dragon spacecraft has flown 15 times, sending 56 passengers to space, including two who were two-time fliers. The first crewed trip took place in May 2020. Each spacecraft’s name is chosen by the crew on its first flight.

According to NASA, teams considered using the other crew Dragon spacecraft that were available but decided that rescheduling Crew-10’s launch date was the best course of action.

JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut and mission specialist Takuya Onishi will undertake his second spaceflight, Roscosmos cosmonaut and mission specialist Kirill Peskov will make his first spaceflight, NASA astronaut and commander Anne McClain will make her second spaceflight, and NASA astronaut and pilot Nichole Ayers will become the first member of the 2021 astronaut candidate class to reach space.

Given that Crew-9 won’t be able to return home until a handover period following Crew-10’s arrival, Wilmore and Williams may have to spend nearly nine months aboard as a result of the delay.

Rotations aboard the ISS typically last six months.

It is unclear when and how Starliner will receive its final certification so that it can start trading off the regular ferry service with SpaceX, as NASA’s Commercial Crew Program aims to have two providers for U.S.-based rotation missions with SpaceX and Boeing. This is due to the Crew Flight Test mission’s incomplete launch.

According to the terms of its contract, Boeing must deliver six missions to the ISS before the space station’s service ends, which is presently scheduled for 2030.

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