Our understanding of the precise moment when a strong solar eruption may strike Earth has advanced to the point where space storms may soon be foretold with ever-greater accuracy.
Even before a coronal mass ejection (CME) has completely erupted from the sun, scientists claim that they are now able to forecast the exact speed at which a CME is traveling and the exact moment at which it will destroy our planet.
CMEs are outbursts from the solar atmosphere that consist of gas and magnetic fields.
Space weather forecasts are being improved by specialists worldwide because they can trigger geomagnetic storms that could cause major disruptions to terrestrial technology both on Earth’s surface and in its orbit.
Researchers from Aberystwyth University, who will present their findings today at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting (NAM 2024) in Hull, believe that advancements like this one could make a significant difference in helping to protect infrastructure that is essential to our daily lives.
After examining particular solar regions known as “active regions,” which have powerful magnetic fields and are the birthplace of CMEs, scientists discovered their discovery. The areas’ changes prior to, during, and following an eruption were observed by the researchers.
The “critical height” of the active regions—the altitude at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and potentially triggers a CME—was a crucial factor they examined.
Lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University, said, “We can determine this critical height by measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height.”
“This data can then be used along with a geometric model, which is used to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions rather than just two, which is essential for precise predictions.”
“Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed.” she continued.
“This insight allows us to predict the CME’s speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted.”
These CMEs have the ability to cause a geomagnetic storm that can result in breathtaking aurorae, often known as the Northern Lights in the northern hemisphere, when they strike the Earth.
However, the storms also pose a threat to critical infrastructure that we depend on on a daily basis, such as communication networks, power grids, and satellites. For this reason, scientists from all over the world are putting a lot of effort into enhancing our capacity to forecast the exact time when CMEs will strike Earth.
In order to more accurately predict when the CME will strike our planet, it is necessary to know its speed quickly after it bursts from the solar.
Precise velocity forecasts allow for a more accurate estimation of the arrival time of a CME on Earth, hence offering vital early warnings.
“Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on,” Gandhi stated.
“Our research not only enhances our understanding of the sun’s explosive behavior but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events.”
“This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day.”